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Author Topic: Ufo propu engine, closed loop  (Read 472244 times)

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #855 on: January 29, 2017, 12:53:44 AM »
Tseung, you should learn more about Forex trading by actually performing some trades. In the Spot Market, the trading is on derivatives - not the currency itself.

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #856 on: January 29, 2017, 06:06:57 AM »

Tseung, you should learn more about Forex trading by actually performing some trades. In the Spot Market, the trading is on derivatives - not the currency itself.
An old classmate said: "I shall open a demo account and show the World how to turn the 200K in that account to 5m. Just sell RMB and see that it depreciates slowly."

Can he succeed?

sm0ky2

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #857 on: January 29, 2017, 08:21:12 AM »
@Tsueng


I wanted to say thank you for creating your compilation of knowledge.
It has helped me greatly in my newest project.


ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #858 on: January 29, 2017, 02:09:16 PM »

 
Quote from: sm0ky2 link=topic=15077.msg498976#msg4989tril76 date=1485674472
@Tseung
 
 I wanted to say thank you for creating your compilation of knowledge.
 It has helped me greatly in my newest project.
 

Some stubborn folks in Bank of China still do not believe that China is already losing in the Currency War. They still insist that Internationalization of RMB is good. The Hedge Funds will not be able to force China to drain its Reserves.

One purpose of the demo account is to show to such stubborn folks that even an average person can "gamble" in the Forex Market with success. The odds are heavily in favor of the gang of Hedge Funds shorting the RMB forcing it to devalue. It is picking up the bits of spoils now and waiting for the huge chunk when the RMB is forced to float.

One Chinese Forex Trader commented – “if Bank of China is to lose many trillions to the Hedge Funds, I may as well pick up some. It is not a matter of not patriotic. It is better for the stubborn decision makers  to learn the lesson now. If the Reserve dwindles to nothing, it will be too late.”

If your newest project needs funding, pick it up in the Forex Market.

(I have outlined a possible solution…)

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #859 on: January 29, 2017, 10:10:35 PM »

An old classmate said: "I shall open a demo account and show the World how to turn the 200K in that account to 5m. Just sell RMB and see that it depreciates slowly."

Can he succeed?
From a Senior Citizen, "I do not mind opening a Demo account to past my time. However, I know nothing about Forex trading, can you post pointers to Forex Trading? Will you answer questions on strategies used to turn 200K to 5m?"

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #860 on: January 30, 2017, 11:08:36 AM »


From a Senior Citizen, "I do not mind opening a Demo account to past my time. However, I know nothing about Forex trading, can you post pointers to Forex Trading? Will you answer questions on strategies used to turn 200K to 5m?"
Forex tutorial
To all those who want to have some fun on Forex.
My advice is to play with demo accounts until you know the game. In demo account, you play with fake or virtual money. You can enjoy without losing your hard earned cash. I shall post what have been helpful to me.

(1)    Basic tutorial for beginners 1: http://www.investopedia.com/university/forexmarket/
(2)    Basic tutorial 2: https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/learn/intro-to-currency-trading/
(3)    Youtube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo4z26THnpo
Study the above information and try to explain to others. Encourage them to ask questions until you feel that you have mastered the basic knowledge.
(4)    Find more than one FOREX broker and open demo accounts. Treat a FOREX broker as a “casin o”. Every broker has slight variations in Leverage, trading pairs offered, minimum margin requirements etc. Choose at least two with demo accounts and play.
(5)    From google on best Forex brokers in Hong Kong: http://topforexbrokersonline.blogspot.hk/2015/04/7-best-forex-brokers-hong-kong-2015.html
 
The key strategy to use is Short (Sell) RMB. Wait for RMB to devalue and buy RMB back (Close the Position). The pair to look for is USD/CNH.

First trade result on USD/CNH

Earned profit = HK$7,029.98

 [font=]Amount $[/font][font=]‪[/font][font=]750,000.00 (using leverage 1:100 effectively committed $7,500)
 Opening Value ¥[/font][font=]‪[/font][font=]5,144,925[/font]
[font=]Close Value [/font][font=]¥[/font][font=]‪[/font][font=]5,151,150[/font]
[font=]Opening Rate 6.8599[/font]
[font=]Close Rate 6.8682[/font]
[font=]Open Time 1/30/2017 10:09 AM[/font]
[font=]Close Time 1/30/2017 3:51 PM[/font]

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #861 on: January 30, 2017, 09:56:45 PM »
First trade result on USD/CNH

Earned profit = HK$7,029.98

Now I appreciate why Forex Trading has daily trading volume exceeding 5 trillion USD. It is very addictive. Once a trader makes some money, it is difficult to keep him away. (I am one of those now.)

The Spot Forex Market trades on derivatives. That means no physical currency changes hands. However, it will affect the actual currency exchange rate.

When there is too much thin-air money, a way must be found to keep it away from causing too much inflation. One way is to use it to trade numbers (derivatives). China has to learn this game sooner or later.

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #862 on: January 31, 2017, 09:25:42 PM »

 Knowledge gained from first trade.
(1)    The opening buy of RMB was at 6.8599 with profit limit at 6.8800 and stop loss at 6.8400.
(2)    The set-up was a possible gain of 200 PIPs or loss of 200 PIPs.
(3)    I went out to visit friends.
(4)    When I came home, I closed the position at 6.8682. The gain was 83 PIPs. Each trade spread was 19 PIPs. The gain in PIPs was 45(83-38). That translated to a profit of HK$7,029.98.
(5)    I was happy to earn something significant in my first trade. Thus, I closed the position well before 6.8800.
(6)    The lesson learned was to put in profit and loss limits when one is not watching the Forex transaction movements. There is peace of mind.
(7)    The limits were deliberately set high (200 PIPs) so that in normal conditions, the limits were not reached.
(8)  The opening and closing difference must be more than 38 PIPs to make a profit. When the observed difference was 83 PIPs, taking profit was reasonable.
(9)    There is much jargon here. Make sure you study the tutorials well – so that you can follow my logic.
 

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #863 on: January 31, 2017, 10:08:47 PM »
 Second Forex Transaction
(1)    Loss of HK$-7,636.53 due to trailing stop.
(2)    I opened the position at 6.8635 with profit stop at 6.8800 and stop loss at 6.8400 as before.
(3)    Not understanding trailing stop too well from the tutorials, I decided to play with it. The default was 60 PIPs. I increased it to 90 PIPs.
(4)    I went out for dinner with relatives.
(5)    When I got home, the position was closed at 6.8545.
(6)    Now I learned the lesson at over 7,600HKD virtual money. The Trailing stop was a moving position. If the prices goes up, the stop also moves up. When the price moves down, the trailing stop remains and gets activated after dropping 90 PIPs.
(7)    Thus my setting the stop limit at over 200 PIP was effectively overruled. There is no point in setting two stop limits. (I shall use the normal Stop Loss more.)

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #864 on: January 31, 2017, 10:27:10 PM »

Third Forex Transaction


 (1)    Gain of HK$8,146.47 due to Market Call (hitting profit limit).
(2)    I opened at 6.8545 with profit stop at 6.8645 and stop loss at 6.8400.
(1)    I chose 100PIPs as profit (need to minus 38PIPs) and decided to wait for Market Action.
(2)    The position was closed at 6.8648 – 3 PIPs above my limit.
(3)    The lesson is that there will be more action if the profit limit is set low but above 38PIPs.
(4)    Not bad. I got addicted even with virtual money.
 

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #865 on: February 01, 2017, 12:23:32 AM »


The fourth Forex Transaction is interesting. It is still open.

When the Market is against you, what should you do?

(1) Suppose you sold RMB at 6.8500. You did not put in any limits as you were free and watched the market movements.
(2) The Market moved against you. It dropped to 6.8400. That represented a loss of 100PIP.
(3) You believe that the lowest value would be 6.8200. There is no way that the RMB will appreciate so much. You believe that the Hedge Funds will drive RMB to 7.0000 or more.
(4) The exchange rate continued to drop to 6.8300. The News was that the US stock and currency were falling because the Trump Executive Order against Muslims was facing opposition. The potential loss amounted to more than HKD18,000.
(5) There are a few options after guessing wrong.
(5a) Close the position and take a HKD18,000 loss.
(5b) Buy more RMB at the lower value, say 6.8250. The margin requirement is increased. But you have effectively reduced the break even point to (6.8250+6.8500)/2 or 6.8375.
- If the exchange rate moves up in your favor, you have two trades working for you.
- If the exchange rate moves down, you lose more. But that means RMB will appreciate significantly - the Hedge Funds do not like it. China also does not like it!
(6) When you have sufficient margin, you can keep both orders open and wait for the tide to turn in your favor.

Let us see what we can learn in this transaction.  It is not closed yet.


*** With the trade volume, 1 PIP represents approximately HKD85. Each open and close transaction involves 19 PIP or 1,615HKD. Frequent trading means giving a higher percentage to the Forex exchange.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2017, 05:05:08 AM by ltseung888 »

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #866 on: February 01, 2017, 10:37:38 AM »



The fourth Forex Transaction is interesting. It is still open.

When the Market is against you, what should you do?

(1) Suppose you sold RMB at 6.8500. You did not put in any limits as you were free and watched the market movements.
(2) The Market moved against you. It dropped to 6.8400. That represented a loss of 100PIP.
(3) You believe that the lowest value would be 6.8200. There is no way that the RMB will appreciate so much. You believe that the Hedge Funds will drive RMB to 7.0000 or more.
(4) The exchange rate continued to drop to 6.8300. The News was that the US stock and currency were falling because the Trump Executive Order against Muslims was facing opposition. The potential loss amounted to more than HKD18,000.
(5) There are a few options after guessing wrong.
(5a) Close the position and take a HKD18,000 loss.
(5b) Buy more RMB at the lower value, say 6.8250. The margin requirement is increased. But you have effectively reduced the break even point to (6.8250+6.8500)/2 or 6.8375.
- If the exchange rate moves up in your favor, you have two trades working for you.
- If the exchange rate moves down, you lose more. But that means RMB will appreciate significantly - the Hedge Funds do not like it. China also does not like it!
(6) When you have sufficient margin, you can keep both orders open and wait for the tide to turn in your favor.

Let us see what we can learn in this transaction.  It is not closed yet.


*** With the trade volume, 1 PIP represents approximately HKD85. Each open and close transaction involves 19 PIP or 1,615HKD. Frequent trading means giving a higher percentage to the Forex exchange.


The position is half closed with realized profit of HK$9,544.79.
Open 6.8245  Closed 6.8364 Gain of 119PIPs.

The profit side was closed first when the net gain was slightly positive.
(1) One technique is to close both legs simultaneously, realizing no gain or loss.
(2) Since it was so much fun, I decided to let the losing leg open. If the exchange rate goes down, I repeat the exercise. If the exchange rate goes up, I start to get more profit.


The quoted USD/CNY rate was 6.8310. CNY is traded in China. CNH is traded in offshore centers such as Hong Kong. The rates can be different somewhat. CNY rate is quoted by Bank of China. CNH rate is purely market driven.

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed lo
« Reply #867 on: February 01, 2017, 07:25:09 PM »

The position is half closed with realized profit of HK$9,544.79.
Open 6.8245  Closed 6.8364 Gain of 119PIPs.

The profit side was closed first when the net gain was slightly positive.
(1) One technique is to close both legs simultaneously, realizing no gain or loss.
(2) Since it was so much fun, I decided to let the losing leg open. If the exchange rate goes down, I repeat the exercise. If the exchange rate goes up, I start to get more profit.

The quoted USD/CNY rate was 6.8310. CNY is traded in China. CNH is traded in offshore centers such as Hong Kong. The rates can be different somewhat. CNY rate is quoted by Bank of China. CNH rate is purely market driven.
As of Feb 1, USD/CNY closed at 6.87907. low 6.87738 high 6.88218

USD/CNH should be following with similar rate. The latest USD/CNH = 6.8364.  Thus it has room to increase. (RMB depreciates).

The bet is on a rate increase. Thus open another position at 6.8345.
The two legs are:
Open at 6.8458 profit limit 6.8503
Open at 6.8345 profit limit 6.8508

No stop loss. Can wait a few days. If successful, the profit from both legs should exceed HK$20,000.

This Forex trading is extremely addictive even with virtual money. No wonder the daily transaction volume exceeds 5 trillion and increasing. If China catches on, exceeding 10 trillion is possible.

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed lo
« Reply #868 on: February 02, 2017, 03:21:18 AM »

As of Feb 1, USD/CNY closed at 6.87907. low 6.87738 high 6.88218

USD/CNH should be following with similar rate. The latest USD/CNH = 6.8364.  Thus it has room to increase. (RMB depreciates).

The bet is on a rate increase. Thus open another position at 6.8345.
The two legs are:
Open at 6.8458 profit limit 6.8503
Open at 6.8345 profit limit 6.8508

No stop loss. Can wait a few days. If successful, the profit from both legs should exceed HK$20,000.

This Forex trading is extremely addictive even with virtual money. No wonder the daily transaction volume exceeds 5 trillion and increasing. If China catches on, exceeding 10 trillion is possible.
@Tseung
If you are a successful Forex Trader, you will be logged out. It is like the gambling industries banning card counters. The Forex Industry is largely unregulated. If you were logged out and lost your earnings, (they will return your capital), there is no place to sue.

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed lo
« Reply #869 on: February 03, 2017, 01:30:45 AM »
@Tseung
If you are a successful Forex Trader, you will be logged out. It is like the gambling industries banning card counters. The Forex Industry is largely unregulated. If you were logged out and lost your earnings, (they will return your capital), there is no place to sue.
China is looking for vehicles for its citizens to invest their hard earned money. If too much is invested in real estate, the real estate prices will shoot up like Hong Kong. The average income earners may no longer .to buy their own home. If the investing is in real assets such as gold, oil, factories, the prices will shoot up. The only way in the long run is let citizens invest in virtual assets such as derivatives.

I was against derivatives at one time. At that time, one can get a reasonable interest from deposits in the Bank. Now there is too much thin-air money. USA let Banks and other Financial Institutions to issue bonds with other bonds as "guaranteed assets" (or packaged the "mortgages" as underlying assets). That created the 2008 financial crisis when overdone. USA government had to print more thin-air money to support such thin-air bonds to prevent a total loss of confidence in the financial market.

If Forex trading were made legal and regulated in China, what will happen? If some of the spread money were automatically taken as "trading taxes", the Forex Brokers would be regulated and the investors/traders interests protected. The investors/traders may have to deposit a certain sum to the Government to safeguard them from total financial bankruptcy. The earnings would no longer be taxed again. The losses would not be reimbursed. (The person may have to fall back to survive on the deposited sum and/or fall to the social safety net).


Forex trading would reach many times the present daily 5 trillion USD level. Similar vehicles could be dreamt up. Is it a meaningful economic activity?