Daring Ptoroposal

Tseung, the main Reserve Currency is the US Dollar. The Dollar has value because the USA Government is behind it. There is no viable alternative at present.

When China is the main trading partner with most Nations, the trade can be done via Mutual Credits or Currency Swap without involving the Dollar. China can then take the position of Reserve Currency. Other currencies can be pegged to it. China can pledge to defend the Currencies of these other Nations. As the Reserve Currency, China can print the necessary thin-air money to do so.


USA allowed the Hedge Funds to attack the financial stability of other Nations. (If USA defended Thailand in 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis would not have happened.) Developing Nations can focus on Meaningful Economic Activities rather than fearing another attack by the Hedge Funds.

Let me use the following analogy that may offend many people.
(1)    Person A got very rich via unfair means such as selling drugs and robbing others. He stopped doing bad things and got on with legitimate businesses. At the back of his mind, he is afraid that those whom he hurt might revenge. He protects himself with high fences, security guards and acts as “policeman”. When he sees Person B getting rich, his first reaction is – does that post a threat to his wealth? Would Person B revenge? He might deliberately suppress or destroy Person B – treating Person B as a potential enemy.

(2)    Person C got very rich via innovation and does legitimate businesses from the very beginning. Person C does not feel that he has any enemies. He is happy to share the secrets of his wealth. He may still have high fences to safeguard his wealth but he is happy to invite others to share his happiness.

(3)    The tactic used by Person A is to keep the “poor” away and even keep them poor by any means available. The tactic used by Person C is to get the “poor” wealthy.

I think I have already offended many. But the Internet allows anyone to post his thoughts…

Do I really understand the present foreign exchange rules?


(1) Many Nations adopt a floating rate policy. Some use managed float (pegged to the US Dollar but allow some up or down movement).
(2) It is the responsibility of the Central Bank of a Nation to "defend" the Exchange rate.
(3) Take the case of the Chinese Currency - RMB. If someone sells RMB, Bank of China must buy it if there were no other buyers. Otherwise, the exchange rate will go lower.
(4) If the Hedge Funds get together and all sell RMB, Bank of China will have to use the Foreign Currency Reserve to buy and thus slowly deplete the Reserve.
(5) If the Foreign Currency Reserve is depleted, China will have no option but to allow the RMB to float and devalue. (Under present rules).
(6) If the Hedge Funds can borrow or obtain RMB at low cost, they can keep selling RMB and deplete the Chinese Foreign Currency Reserve.
(7) The Hedge Funds can spread the rumour that RMB is about to devalue and cause many RMB holders - Chinese Citizens, Companies or Trading Partners etc. - to exchange their RMB for USD. There will be many sellers. Bank of China may become the only buyer.
(8) If Bank of China does not buy, the exchange rate will fall, there will be more panic to sell the RMB for USD to preserve the wealth.
(9) The Hedge Funds can claim that it is "Market Forces" at work. They can always blame the collapse of the RMB (and the inevitable instability and loss of confidence in the Chinese Government) on Chinese corruption, massive debt, over expansion and inevitable failure of Communism).


Am I correct?

Let us make it more crazy.
(1) If the bicycles are modified to run on rails.
(2) The rails can be on same levels as the elevated, multilevel electric mass transit.
(3)  One pays to use the mass transit. One gets paid to exercise on the new bicycles.
(4) The new bicycles will be totally safe as they are on rails (even 4 wheels?)
(5) Passengers may travel part of the journey on mass transit and part on new bicycles.

More crazy or more innovative.
(1) The new bicycles can be run standalone so that riders can ride it home.
(2) The new bicycles can be attached to the new rails as a means to provide power.
(3) The new rails has carriages for people who prefers leisurely travel and get paid.
(4) The whole family can ride together on the new bicycles and new carriages.
(5) All the new research, development and implementation can be added to GDP.
(6) There will be less need for dedicated bicycle parks as most of them are on the rails.
(7) Is it one of the Meaningful Economic Activities?

Do I really understand the present foreign exchange rules?


(1) Many Nations adopt a floating rate policy. Some use managed float (pegged to the US Dollar but allow some up or down movement).
(2) It is the responsibility of the Central Bank of a Nation to "defend" the Exchange rate.
(3) Take the case of the Chinese Currency - RMB. If someone sells RMB, Bank of China must buy it if there were no other buyers. Otherwise, the exchange rate will go lower.
(4) If the Hedge Funds get together and all sell RMB, Bank of China will have to use the Foreign Currency Reserve to buy and thus slowly deplete the Reserve.
(5) If the Foreign Currency Reserve is depleted, China will have no option but to allow the RMB to float and devalue. (Under present rules).
(6) If the Hedge Funds can borrow or obtain RMB at low cost, they can keep selling RMB and deplete the Chinese Foreign Currency Reserve.
(7) The Hedge Funds can spread the rumour that RMB is about to devalue and cause many RMB holders - Chinese Citizens, Companies or Trading Partners etc. - to exchange their RMB for USD. There will be many sellers. Bank of China may become the only buyer.
(8) If Bank of China does not buy, the exchange rate will fall, there will be more panic to sell the RMB for USD to preserve the wealth.
(9) The Hedge Funds can claim that it is "Market Forces" at work. They can always blame the collapse of the RMB (and the inevitable instability and loss of confidence in the Chinese Government) on Chinese corruption, massive debt, over expansion and inevitable failure of Communism).


Am I correct?

China can directly or indirectly spread the rumor that RMB will appreciate as an agreement with Trump. China will raise the exchange rate so that Chinese Goods will be more expensive - giving USA and others a chance to compete.

http://orientaldaily.on.cc/cnt/finance/20170125/00273_001.html

The above Chinese Newspaper Article described the attack of the RMB by the Hedge Funds. It said that the Hedge Funds used "news" to spread gloom for China. The Foreign Exchange Reserve plummeted from 4 trillion to 3 trillion with no sign of stopping.

人民幣貶值趨勢既成，引發內地走資潮，人行不惜動用外匯儲備去減慢貶值速度，力圖挽回市場信心，可惜堆沙填海，治標不治本。去年十二月，中國外儲跌至三萬億美元邊緣，創近六年新低，較高位縮水近萬億美元。

中央穩信心效果不彰，反而因外儲消耗，惹來金融大鱷群起攻擊，並唱淡中國外匯儲備會跌至二萬六千億美元，隨時觸及警戒線。大鱷屢發這些言論，實際上是要借助市場力量，聚眾推牆，測試底線為名，向市場發放悲觀預期為實，推冧人民幣，從中獲利。

When daily newspapers carry such article, the currency war is clear. The Hedge Funds are using the well-tried strategy of spreading rumors that the RMB will depreciate. The Foreign Currency Research of China is going to dwindle and get more people "to push down the wall".


We have outlined a possible solution here. I hope that it will be passed to the decision makers.

http://orientaldaily.on.cc/cnt/finance/20170125/00273_001.html

The above Chinese Newspaper Article described the attack of the RMB by the Hedge Funds. It said that the Hedge Funds used "news" to spread gloom for China. The Foreign Exchange Reserve plummeted from 4 trillion to 3 trillion with no sign of stopping.

人民幣貶值趨勢既成，引發內地走資潮，人行不惜動用外匯儲備去減慢貶值速度，力圖挽回市場信心，可惜堆沙填海，治標不治本。去年十二月，中國外儲跌至三萬億美元邊緣，創近六年新低，較高位縮水近萬億美元。

中央穩信心效果不彰，反而因外儲消耗，惹來金融大鱷群起攻擊，並唱淡中國外匯儲備會跌至二萬六千億美元，隨時觸及警戒線。大鱷屢發這些言論，實際上是要借助市場力量，聚眾推牆，測試底線為名，向市場發放悲觀預期為實，推冧人民幣，從中獲利。

A discussion session
Some of us discussed the above at a dinner party over a few drinks. The following are some juicy extracts.
Tseung: “What would you do with your RMB account?”
Person A: “Change them to USD. The general consensus is that the RMB will depreciate.”
Person B: “That is unpatriotic. You are helping the Hedge Funds to drain the Chinese Currency Reserve.”
Person A: “I am a small guy. I just want to preserve my wealth.”
Person C: “I do not hold any RMB but I go to Shenzhen often for entertainment. If RMB devalues, I shall use my Hong Kong Dollars to exchange for more RMB and enjoy myself more.”
Tseung: “Have you ever considered what would happen if the Hedge Funds succeeded in draining the Foreign Currency Reserve of China?”
Person A: “I am a small guy. I do not worry about such big, complicated things.”
Person B: “Do you remember the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997? Did that affect you?”
Person C: “I was stupid and sold most of my stocks and property at the low price to change into dollars. I lost a fortune at that time. I hate Hedge Funds. Those Hedge Fund Managers are crocodiles. Someone should skin them.”
Person D: “China has a lot of Foreign Currency Reserve. Don’t worry.”
Person B: “Read the newspaper article carefully. The Reserve has dwindled from 4 trillion to 3 trillion USD.”
Tseung: “What do you think about the proposal of using the Malaysian technique?”
Person C: “My import and export business relies on stable exchange rate. If the RMB is firmly pegged to the Dollar, I am happy.”
Tseung: “What about the plans to make RMB a Reserve Currency?”
Person C: “I do not care. I just want currency stability so that I can predict my risks in my business.”
 

 Possible innovative policies of the New Chief Executive of Hong Kong.

A group of us had lunch gathering before the Chinese New Year of the Rooster. One of the hot topics in Hong Kong is the Election of the New Chief Executive. Many complained that the candidates did not propose anything innovative. Someone suggested that we should post our innovative ideas to them. The following are some quick thoughts:

(1)    The key theme should be the rebuilding of self-confidence and harmony of the Hong Kong Citizens.
(2)    On the economic front, help China to beat the Hedge Funds with the proposal similar to that used by Malaysia in the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.
(3)    Expand the opportunities to the young people via the one-belt-one-road initiative. For example, there is no room for agriculture but there are excellent opportunities in Africa.
(4)    Hong Kong can develop the best on-line educational courses covering primary and secondary school courses. Such courses can be updated from time to time. Additional special courses can be added later. Encourage other Nations to use them.
(5)    Introduce Super Democracy so that every voter can vote on key issues as an ordinary event. Hong Kong will lead the World in modern democracy.
(6)    Have Mutual Credit Agreement with a few selected Nations. Post every detail on-line so that the World can learn together.
(7)    Solve the housing issue via cooperative expansion to Shenzhen and Zhuhai taking advantage of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge and the Science Park Zone near Shenzhen. Many businesses can be done on-line. Physical location is not an issue.
(8)  Adopt the Alibaba model and show that Company Branches or Franchises can be managed or monitored remotely.
Have special workshops to show that anyone can open his/her own shop. Any success will rebuild the self-confidence of the Hong Kong Citizens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internationalization_of_the_renminbi#RMB_as_a_reserve_currency.5B22.5D


I will gamble if the odds are definitely in my favor. It is not really gambling. It is legally robbing money from the other side. When Hedge Funds gang up to push the RMB down, they will tilt the balance in their favor. They will win. The rumor they spread that RMB will devalue is self-fulfilling.

Looking back, it is a trap in the Currency or Economic War. China was doing well with the RMB pegged to the Dollar and "closed" Internationally. Economic War is fought with cunning. It is difficult to distinguish between friend and foe. The trusted advisor may actually be the worst enemy.

Tseung, are saying that Bank of China gambled foolishly and lost one Trillion USD?