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Author Topic: Ufo propu engine, closed loop  (Read 472056 times)

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #825 on: January 18, 2017, 11:02:23 PM »
Tseung, the USA strategy is to have the USD as the dominant or only Settlement and Reserve Currency.  If China behaves according to US wishes, USA can call off the attack.  Or it may even loan US dollars to China to defeat the Currency Speculators.

If the Foreign Reserve of China is depleted, China may have to beg the World Bank or IMF (and behave according to US wishes).

The rules are written by the West.  No matter how hard you work.  No matter how fast your GDP grows. If you lose the currency war, you will suffer badly.  No bullets need to be fired.  No bombs need to be dropped.   

There is merit in the Malaysia Ringgit example. Retreat from the Settlement and Reserve Currency Position. Climb out from the trap. There may be a loss of face but a proper explanation will solve it. If the Foreign Reserve were depleted, the consequence will be catastrophic. Such failures toppled many governments.
The West will not admit to attack via Currency War. They will say that China was in terrible debt, property bubble, corruption and inevitable failure of Communism.

Remember the art of war from 孫子 . Go for Super Democracy and Mutual Credits.

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #826 on: January 19, 2017, 05:57:26 AM »

 Daring Ptoroposal

Tseung, the main Reserve Currency is the US Dollar. The Dollar has value because the USA Government is behind it. There is no viable alternative at present.

When China is the main trading partner with most Nations, the trade can be done via Mutual Credits or Currency Swap without involving the Dollar. China can then take the position of Reserve Currency. Other currencies can be pegged to it. China can pledge to defend the Currencies of these other Nations. As the Reserve Currency, China can print the necessary thin-air money to do so.


USA allowed the Hedge Funds to attack the financial stability of other Nations. (If USA defended Thailand in 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis would not have happened.) Developing Nations can focus on Meaningful Economic Activities rather than fearing another attack by the Hedge Funds.

Let me use the following analogy that may offend many people.
(1)    Person A got very rich via unfair means such as selling drugs and robbing others. He stopped doing bad things and got on with legitimate businesses. At the back of his mind, he is afraid that those whom he hurt might revenge. He protects himself with high fences, security guards and acts as “policeman”. When he sees Person B getting rich, his first reaction is – does that post a threat to his wealth? Would Person B revenge? He might deliberately suppress or destroy Person B – treating Person B as a potential enemy.

(2)    Person C got very rich via innovation and does legitimate businesses from the very beginning. Person C does not feel that he has any enemies. He is happy to share the secrets of his wealth. He may still have high fences to safeguard his wealth but he is happy to invite others to share his happiness.

(3)    The tactic used by Person A is to keep the “poor” away and even keep them poor by any means available. The tactic used by Person C is to get the “poor” wealthy.

I think I have already offended many. But the Internet allows anyone to post his thoughts…

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #827 on: January 19, 2017, 08:18:09 AM »

One comment:


What happens if all Nations pegged their currencies rigidly to USD?  Are all effectively Reserve Currencies?

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #828 on: January 20, 2017, 11:28:07 PM »

One comment:

What happens if all Nations pegged their currencies rigidly to USD?  Are all effectively Reserve Currencies?
Tseung, the major stake holder, USA, will not allow it. The strategy I can think of is the Malaysia Ringgit example. Make trading of Ringgit outside Malaysia illegal.

When another Nation trades with Malaysia, the settlement will be in Malaysia. The exchange can be rigidly pegged to the UD Dollar. Or a Mutual Credit (Currency Swap) deal can be used. This avoids the attack by the Hedge Funds or Currency Speculators.

The "weapons" of the Speculators are too powerful. It was like the Eighteenth Century when the West used guns against the Native Americans. It was up to the West when to attack. The West could offer a few feathers to claim New York, the Natives had no choice but to accept. The Currency War Weapon allowing trading of Currencies is one-sided. If you cannot think of a solution, the Central Bankers are unlikely to think of a solution. The Central Bankers in Britain, USSR, Asian Tigers could not. Hoping that the Central Bankers in China has a solution is just a hope or wishful thinking.

In trade, a merchant has an option of not selling his goods to a particular customer. In Currency War, the Forex transactions are so numerous that identifying the "customer" is virtually impossible. Loaning to another Bank for normal business transactions is a necessary element of International Trade. But how can one be sure that "this other Bank" is not loaning to Speculators to attack the Currency. Malaysia took the "extreme" position of making the Ringgit trading illegal outside Malaysia.

One Question raised was - why are many Countries not afraid. The answer was similar to the Eighteenth Century, it was up to Britain to choose to attack. Now it is up to USA. USA can detach itself by allowing its Hedge Funds to do the dirty work and claim that it is Market Forces. (U.K. claimed that it never sold opium, it was their Merchants.)


ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #829 on: January 21, 2017, 11:23:44 AM »

Tseung, a market exists if there are willing buyers and sellers. Such a market will satisfy the needs of both and thus is a win-win.


When a Market is totally biased to one side, that is an unfair Market. In the Forex, if the Speculators gang up to push a Currency down, the Central Bank had no choice but to become the ONLY buyer. That will deplete the Foreign Currency Reserve. It is not Market Force at work. It is WAR - to destroy the stability of that Nation.


The Malaysian Example is to retreat away from the War. The PLUS is preservation of Currency Reserve and restore stability. The MINUS is not following the rules and possibility of diminished trade. China should avoid WAR (real or Economic). Retreating is an option. Forget about losing face...

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #830 on: January 21, 2017, 01:34:02 PM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAqjcpGwFB4


Green China Rising.


Can China use technology to cleanup its environment?

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #831 on: January 21, 2017, 03:14:25 PM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internationalization_of_the_renminbi


Has China fallen into the trap? Will the attack by Hedge Funds drain the entire China Foreign Currency Reserve? The advantage of Reserve Currency Status may be attractive. But allowing the Hedge Funds to systematically drain away the Reserve is really dangerous...

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #832 on: January 21, 2017, 03:32:17 PM »

If the Hedge Funds can borrow RMB, drive the exchange rate down, make some money in the process, they can repeat. Even if their total ammunition is less than China, they can slowly drain away the Reserve. With all the Off-shore centers, the Hedge Funds can easily borrow RMB.


Has China studied the risks? Has China played the what-if games? In Economic War, it is difficult to determine who is the friend and who is the enemy? The trusted advisor may be the enemy!

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #833 on: January 21, 2017, 05:13:35 PM »

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/06/go-for-the-jugular/57696/


The story of how Soros shorted the pound in 1992. He netted USD1.2 billion in one month. UK had to abandon the exchange mechanism with a forced devaluation.


What is wrong with accepting the USD as the Settlement and Reserve Currency? With Globalization, there will be one Reserve Currency eventually. If USD were the Reserve Currency and China held a large amount, what are the what-ifs?

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #834 on: January 21, 2017, 06:59:24 PM »
 Using the Malaysia Ringgit Strategy.
If China were to declare trading of RMB outside China is illegal and pegged the RMB at 1USD to 6.8800, what is likely to happen?
(1)    China can tell all Buyers of Chinese Goods that they can pay in USD or in RMB at 1USD to 6.8800RMB (or in their own currency at the pre-agreed swap currency rate).
(2)    If the RMB fell to 1USD to 8.0000 as an example, Buyers can buy RMB in the International Market and buy the approved goods or services in China.  If they use their USD, they will only have 6.8800 to spend.
(3)    The Buyer Nations are likely to get as much RMB as possible in the International Market.
(4)    There will not be much devaluation of RMB. Bank of China does not need to defend the RMB. Other Buyer Nations will do it.
(5)    It is a win-win strategy. China wins as it can preserve its Foreign Exchange Reserve and sell more goods or services. The Buyer Nations wins as they can get more RMB for their Dollar. The Currency Speculators wins as the RMB is effectively depreciated somewhat. They would make some profit after unwinding their short position.
(6)    China can even use the event to its advantage by announcing that there is a time limit (say 2 months) for the Buyer Nations to use their RMB obtained from the International Market.
« Last Edit: January 21, 2017, 10:18:32 PM by ltseung888 »

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #835 on: January 21, 2017, 10:33:58 PM »

Using the Malaysia Ringgit Strategy.
If China were to declare trading of RMB outside China is illegal and pegged the RMB at 1USD to 6.8800, what is likely to happen?
(1)    China can tell all Buyers of Chinese Goods that they can pay in USD or in RMB at 1USD to 6.8800RMB (or in their own currency at the pre-agreed swap currency rate).
(2)    If the RMB fell to 1USD to 8.0000 as an example, Buyers can buy RMB in the International Market and buy the approved goods or services in China.  If they use their USD, they will only have 6.8800 to spend.
(3)    The Buyer Nations are likely to get as much RMB as possible in the International Market.
(4)    There will not be much devaluation of RMB. Bank of China does not need to defend the RMB. Other Buyer Nations will do it.
(5)    It is a win-win strategy. China wins as it can preserve its Foreign Exchange Reserve and sell more goods or services. The Buyer Nations wins as they can get more RMB for their Dollar. The Currency Speculators wins as the RMB is effectively depreciated somewhat. They would make some profit after unwinding their short position.
(6)    China can even use the event to its advantage by announcing that there is a time limit (say 2 months) for the Buyer Nations to use their RMB obtained from the International Market.
The advisors to Malaysia must have considered the what-ifs very carefully. With such plans in place, there will be no panic.
China can effectively let its trading Nations peg their currencies to RMB. So long as RMB is stable and pegged firmly to the USD, RMB is effectively a Settlement and a Reserve Currency. In theory, all rigidly pegged currencies are Settlement and Reserve Currencies.
With this new rule, Hedge Funds and Currency Speculators have no voice in determining the exchange rate. Bank of China does not need to worry about their activities. They can still trade CNY on their Forex platforms but the rates and transactions are irrelevant.


This technique allows China to preserve the exchange rate and keep its foreign exchange reserve. The claim that the likes of George Soros are Market Forces can be ignored.

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #836 on: January 22, 2017, 01:04:10 AM »

The advisors to Malaysia must have considered the what-ifs very carefully. With such plans in place, there will be no panic.
China can effectively let its trading Nations peg their currencies to RMB. So long as RMB is stable and pegged firmly to the USD, RMB is effectively a Settlement and a Reserve Currency. In theory, all rigidly pegged currencies are Settlement and Reserve Currencies.
With this new rule, Hedge Funds and Currency Speculators have no voice in determining the exchange rate. Bank of China does not need to worry about their activities. They can still trade CNY on their Forex platforms but the rates and transactions are irrelevant.


This technique allows China to preserve the exchange rate and keep its foreign exchange reserve. The claim that the likes of George Soros are Market Forces can be ignored.
Tseung, what are you going to do now that you think you have a good solution?

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #837 on: January 22, 2017, 02:46:22 PM »

Tseung, what are you going to do now that you think you have a good solution?
The attached email will be sent to all who may have an influence on the Financial World in Hong Kong and China.

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #838 on: January 23, 2017, 03:50:11 PM »

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-economist-thinks-china-is-headed-for-a-1929-style-depression-2016-06-30e


Economists are allowed and encouraged to voice different opinion (even in China). There is no right or wrong in interpreting past events. Some even told me that the Asian Financial Crisis was not due to attack by Hedge Funds.

ltseung888

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Re: Ufo propu engine, closed loop
« Reply #839 on: January 24, 2017, 01:16:48 AM »
 A crazy, innovative idea
As many of you already know, China is embarking on encouraging innovation. Venture funding is easy to obtain. Crazy ideas will be listened. The following is one of the craziest (and most innovative) ideas that came to my attention.
(1)    The entrepreneur wants to develop a bicycle that can charge batteries. The batteries can be used on the same bicycle or removed to other bicycles.
(2)    The bicycles will be owned by local governments that build special bicycle lanes.
(3)    The user of such bicycles actually get paid!
(4)    If the battery of the bicycle is run down, there will be additional payment for recharging.
(5)    There will be many “reverse rental” stations facilitating the renting and parking of such bicycles.
(6)    Riders can even ride such bicycles to their own homes and use them to ride to work or to the nearby mass transit stations.
(7)    The payment can be via Smart Phones.
(8)    Many youngsters with no means of earning money can earn money this way.
(9)    This is a green revolution.  Many will not buy cars and pollute the environment.
(10) The health of Citizens will improve with the exercise.
Is the above idea crazy or innovative? Does it deserve support? Should such crazy ideas be promoted?